Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 29.797398 33.148880 36.982967 41.756374 47.632368 54.759801 64.275773
2025-06-29 24.717854 28.816276 33.906494 40.896687 50.611123 64.287929 86.462891
2025-07-06 22.503463 27.285993 33.664707 43.260563 58.340970 83.482039 136.289645
2025-07-13 20.069976 24.967941 31.820487 42.818252 61.807860 98.379417 198.560265
2025-07-20 18.432780 23.436010 30.731620 43.146565 66.620835 119.365029 324.670001
2025-07-27 17.163863 22.223313 29.865177 43.560531 71.762049 146.221614 620.373657
2025-08-03 16.035078 21.060866 28.868065 43.470475 75.860426 175.887872 1497.052050
2025-08-10 14.995310 19.911031 27.714377 42.811988 78.431391 205.489962 6704.012041
2025-08-17 14.238588 19.117664 27.037685 42.918933 83.029318 253.949634 NaN
2025-08-24 13.520086 18.314553 26.238303 42.601803 86.423780 308.315629 NaN
2025-08-31 12.848906 17.529910 25.379655 41.989556 88.763464 368.464763 NaN
2025-09-07 12.274149 16.857484 24.649298 41.524076 91.462142 451.011627 NaN
2025-09-14 11.768421 16.270614 24.030478 41.239850 94.915434 579.763330 NaN
2025-09-21 11.221126 15.579207 23.156628 40.220435 95.331183 687.275473 NaN
2025-09-28 11.092381 15.582896 23.586030 42.422504 110.039522 1581.680298 NaN
2025-10-05 10.683614 15.078699 22.989371 41.946469 113.155053 2559.489334 NaN
2025-10-12 10.386585 14.749671 22.706007 42.239662 120.410113 7778.087898 NaN
2025-10-19 10.121157 14.459180 22.472138 42.627072 128.807892 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 9.831587 14.109139 22.087778 42.533998 134.731227 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 9.515277 13.695214 21.541303 41.895513 137.040982 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.283125 13.420817 21.263267 41.997202 144.656606 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.032924 13.101556 20.867941 41.690397 149.430792 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 8.775992 12.758770 20.400388 41.099043 151.797507 NaN NaN